Mobile data services to grow steadily but not exponentially

Stuttgart, Germany – 3rd March 2003 - According to a recent study published by InfoCom, mobile data services (excluding WLAN, which is covered by another study) should grow in the period from 2002 to 2008 by a CAAGR of 82% in the USA, 27% in the Top-5 Western European countries (France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK) and 23% in Japan. Mobile data services include all non-voice mobile services, such as messaging (SMS, MMS, mobile e-mail), mobile Internet and business applications.

On the one hand improved technology at decreasing prices will gradually enable operators to convince more and more users of the fun and practical value of mobile data services. On the other hand these improvements, and for instance the penetration of adequate handsets, will happen only gradually, while roaming and interoperability issues will also initially slow down the development of mobile data services. Substitution effects, either between mobile data services such as SMS and MMS, or between voice and messaging services (SMS and calls) will also put a limit on the growth of some mobile data services.

The CAAGR will be much higher in the US as mobile data services in this country, amongst other reasons hindered by a lack of roaming and interoperability, are still very much underdeveloped as compared to Western Europe (where SMS is highly common) and Japan (where SMS and mobile Internet is very developed). As a consequence we estimate that mobile data services will enable mobile operators to increase blended ARPU, but below some current expectations, not to mention some hyped figures published one to two years ago.

This market outlook comes from a study published by InfoCom. The forecasts are also available in Teleseeq, InfoCom’s market intelligence portal. Teleseeq is available on-line and provides fundamental market data for the multimedia and telecoms industry in four categories: equipment market, services market, companies’ key figures and socio-economic data. In addition Teleseeq provides company profiles and other customised reports.

About InfoCom

InfoCom is a market research and consultancy company with over 15 years experience providing strategic planning assistance to stakeholders in the telecommunications and multimedia industry. InfoCom’s independent and fact-based perspective on the telecommunications and multimedia environment contributes to decision makers understanding of market dynamics, trends and opportunities in the key markets.